Are You Covidscuous? Have you been swapping air with those
who are?
Covidscuous, adj. (co-vid-skyoo-us), Covidscuity, n. -- definition: demonstrating
or implying an undiscriminating or unselective approach; indiscriminate or
casual -- in regard to Covid contagion risks to oneself and those around one.
[Update 1/12/22:] Alternate form: Coviscuous, Coviscuity. Some may find this form easier to pronounce and more understandable.
We seem to lack a word for this badly needed concept. Many smart
people who know Covid is real and have been vaccinated and boosted and wear
masks often still seem to be oblivious to the cumulative and multiplicative
nature of repeated exposures to risk. Many are aware that Omicron has added a
new curveball, but give little thought to how often they expose themselves (and
thus those they spend time with) by not limiting how much time they spend in
large congregate indoor settings -- especially when rates and risks are increasing.
In July 2020, I wrote The
Fog of Coronavirus: No Bright Lines, emphasizing that Covid spreads like a
fog, depending on distance, airflow, and duration of exposure. That while a single
interaction may have low risk, large numbers of low-risk interactions can amount
to high risk. “You can play Russian roulette once or twice and likely survive.
Ten or twenty times and you will almost certainly die. We must weigh level of risk, duration, and
frequency.” A gathering of six friends or relatives exposes six people to each
other. A party with dozens of people chatting and mingling in ever-changing close
circles of a few people has far higher risk – even if all are boosted.
We need to constantly apply the OODA loop to our exposures –
Observe, Orient, Decide, Act, and repeat. When rates and exposure levels are
low, we can be more relaxed. As rates or other risk factors increase, we need
to be far more judicious about our exposures.
We should think in terms of a Covidscuity Rating. An
index that factors in how many people you interact with (each having their own
Covidscuity Rating), for what duration. More people, some with higher
Covidscuity, and for more duration, closer, with less masking all multiply
risk. Maybe epidemiologists can decide just how that math generally works and
create a calculator app we can use to understand the relevant factors better (much like apps for home energy efficiency). Maybe display a Monte Carlo graph to show how this is never exact, but a fuzzy bell curve of
probabilities. This could help us understand the risks we take -- and those we
take on from those we choose to interact with.
But in any case, the OODA loops must be continuous. Not from months ago, but weekly, and whenever there is new information. Observe,
Orient, Decide, Act, repeat.
And of course we have a social responsibility. This risk is
not just to you, but those you might next infect. And to all of us, as you help provide a breeding ground for new and more dangerous variants.
This is not to say some Covidscuity is always wrong, only
that we should maintain updated awareness of what risk we take, for what reward,
and consider not just single events but budget your activities for the compounding effect of repeated exposure.
Consider your own Covidscuity, and that of those you expose yourself to.
